Iran and the US are getting closer, but military tensions in the Persian Gulf are not easing | Aleni

Thursday's meeting between Iran and the United States in Geneva revealed a vague agreement to continue talks, but without closing the gap on Iran's nuclear program and missiles.

Iran and the US are getting closer, but military tensions in the Persian Gulf have not subsided

The mistrust meant that Iran and the United States agreed to continue talks at the Geneva conference, but did not bridge differences over Iran's nuclear and missile programs.

The second round of talks between Iran and the United States to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear program ended this Tuesday in Geneva with little progress, except for some "consensus" to continue talks, despite the growing risk that the rift between the two countries and Israeli pressure could spark a conflict in the Middle East with unforeseen consequences.

The Iranian delegation in the Swiss city was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and the American delegation was led by White House Special Representative Steve Wittkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.Economists are also on the negotiating teams, even if it is possible to reach a small diplomatic deal, which is expected to keep the war drums beating loudly in the Middle East.

It wasn't like that.While the Iraqi minister said publicly that "general agreement has been reached on a number of key principles, upon which the text of a possible agreement will be developed", he immediately poured cold water on anyone who might have thought of an initial roadmap towards an understanding.

"This does not mean that we will reach an agreement soon," Araqchi said.And he warned that while "a new window of opportunity may be opened by talks with the United States," he also said, "Iran is fully prepared to defend itself against any threat and aggressive action."And, he warned, "the impact of any attack on Iran "will not be limited to its borders," in a direct warning to Israel and the bases the United States has in neighboring countries.

This is the second round of talks between the Americans and the Iranians after a meeting in Oman on February 6.Last June, following the twelve-day war between Iran and Israel, supported by the US, these contacts between Washington and Tehran were interrupted, trying to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear development, the White House and Tel Aviv halting the request, which they suspected of using the method used by the Ayatollahs to make nuclear weapons.

Too many red lines and Israel still in the shadows

The meeting has already started with many reservations on both sides.Iran has stressed in recent days that it will not give up its nuclear development, which it describes as "civilian" and without military pretensions, and that it will not touch its advanced ballistic missile program, which Israel also wants to limit to weapons with a range of less than 300 kilometers.Tel Aviv's pressure on Washington has been there since those talks were proposed, although the White House has so far favored diplomatic talks, choosing and sidelining the military path advocated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

Shadows increased during the meeting.When Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized US President Donald Trump in Tehran for testing Iran in nuclear negotiations and forbidding it from developing uranium, they were not at the negotiating table at the Omani embassy in Geneva.Iran rejects such a decision because it would halt its nuclear program.As demonstrated in the Geneva negotiations, plans may often be scaled back to avoid suspicion of military activity.

Khamenei, like his representatives in Geneva, expressed his opposition to the limitation of Iran's production of long-range ballistic missiles, which the United States is demanding under pressure from Israel.The missiles available to the Iranian army are the most modern in the Middle East and can reach a distance of 2,000 kilometers and thus hit targets in Israel, as happened in the armed conflict last June.The Jewish government requests that this range be 300 kilometers.If so, Khamenei replied, Iran will be "at the mercy of its enemies."

In a speech, Iran's supreme ayatollah directly challenged Trump, who he said will not succeed in destroying the Islamic republic.The inclusion of Khamenei is not surprising given that the US president emphasized the leadership opportunities available in Tehran last Friday.

Military maneuvers to revive the Geneva meeting

To increase the temperature of the meeting, during its advance it was also learned that Iran has ordered the closure of some areas of the Strait of Hormuz, which controls access to the Persian Gulf, as part of the military measures that were taken coincidentally on the eve of the Geneva meeting.

These naval exercises carried out this Monday by the forces of the so-called Iranian Revolutionary Guard, one of the most powerful bodies of Tehran's armed forces, took place in Hormuz, a maritime port between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.The message is clear: if there is an open war in the Middle East against the United States and its Israeli allies, one of Iran's steps will be to block this strategic strait, through which 20% of the world's oil flows.

The Revolutionary Guards themselves acknowledged this, stressing that the purpose of the exercise was to test Iran's "quick reaction" in order to "wisely exploit the Islamic Republic of Iran's geopolitical advantages in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman."

The Iranians are not the only ships in the area.The US has its aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln with destroyers and other support ships near Hormuz, and is moving its largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, a real battleship floating in the area.

"If we don't have a deal, we need it (the aircraft carrier). If we have a deal, it's going to go. It's going to go very soon. We have one that just arrived. If we need it, we're going to use it. We have it ready, a very large force," Trump threatened on Friday.

A meeting where disbelief prevailed

The risk of open conflict between Iran and the US is very high, and the lack of clear progress in talks explains the concern expressed by Persian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghai in statements to Iranian state television during the Geneva meeting.Although the diplomat highlighted the presence of economic experts in the Iranian delegation to promote trade interests, Baghai admitted that the structure of the talks was "very complicated".

"There is no trust between the parties, but negotiations must continue under these conditions" and "as long as necessary," he assured.From Budapest, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted similar concerns on Washington's side.It is "not easy" to make a deal with Iran because, he said, the country is controlled by "radical Shiite clerics" who make their decisions based on theology, not geopolitics.Hakim's words resonated when he called for "regime change" in Tehran to achieve that understanding.

Mistrust has been exacerbated by weapons negotiations on the table, as Trump recalled on the eve of the talks.

If there is a war, it will be massive

The danger now is that if the government talks do not progress, the United States will step up preparations for an attack on Iran.The Pentagon is preparing for a "sustained" military campaign against Iran that will last several weeks and is waiting for Trump's order to launch it, according to two senior US officials.

So far, these sources say, diplomacy is the priority, as Trump wants, but all cards are on the table.In fact, as Marco Rubio himself pointed out last Saturday, even if Trump decides to strike a deal with Iran, such an option is "very difficult to achieve."

When the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan last June, they also had two aircraft carriers in the area.But this time, a massive American attack would exceed the scale and destructive power of Operation Midnight Hammer.Stealth bombers from the United States were then used, supported by aircraft carriers and their crews, in case it was necessary to increase operations.This was not the case, as Iran's response to American bases in the region, particularly the one the Pentagon maintains in Qatar, was very restrained.

However, this time, things may be completely different if Iran decides to put everything it has to defend itself against the United States and Israel, who will surely take the opportunity to immediately enter the war and try to destroy the worst enemy in the Middle East.And if Trump and his fans repeat themselves in recent years, the American target is not only nuclear facilities, but also the main elements of Hydra, the Iranian leadership, the Iranian high command and citizens in the country's government.

The United States does not have the ability to launch a large-scale ground attack from Iran, as it did with international support (which it currently does not have) against Iraq in 2003. But it can use all its air forces and missiles to overthrow the Islamic regime that Trump has repeatedly defended, echoed by his good friend Netanyahu.

However, if Iran were to attack US bases in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Syria and Turkey, the sanctions could escalate the war in almost the entire region.It would also draw the ire of Iran's allies in the Islamist Axis Resistance, from Iraq to Lebanon.However, one of Washington's demands on Tehran is to break ties with these soldiers, which Iran has refused to lead.

In short, the alternative to the current negotiations, despite their slow progress, will be "very disturbing," as Trump himself warned last week.

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