Apr 08, 2026
3 min read
Air power is not enough to break the will of the enemy.The second generation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shows the power of the bomb and the ability to change.
The US-Israeli aggression against Iran has exposed a fundamental miscalculation by those who believe that "two or three days of bombing is enough to win a war."On the other hand,The attack underestimated the ability of Iran's armed forces to respond, while overestimating Washington and Tel Aviv's air power as a major part of the conflict.
Calculation error
The biggest mistake so far is reducing the strength of the opponent and his ability to change the performance.Iran, knowing that it is in danger of "decapitation destruction", established the "mosaic doctrine". In doing so, it not only provides command and control, but also ensures the spread of the officers of the second generation of the Revolutionary Guards. A strategy that seeks to ensure the survival of its offensive power to prolong the conflict
To believe that air power alone is important is to ignore the lessons of history and classical strategic theory that demonstrate that strategic bombing rarely breaks the will of the enemy.Furthermore, in the case of a country with great strategic depth like Iran, the only way to take real control of the regime, at this stage of the conflict, is through a planned and organized ground attack, one of the largest and riskiest military bets.
Indeed, the initial attacks by the United States and Israel were a tactical success.According to the Armed Conflicts and Incidents Data Project, ten days after the conflict, "at least 30% of the more than 900 attacks by the United States and Israel have successfully hit the Islamic Republic's internal control system."
But when Iran expanded its goals in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, by increasing the price of energy and changing the behavior of the financial market, it forced its enemies to face the limits of their power.There is no doubt that Iran's strategy is not an organized attack, but an absurd strategy and economic pressure.
2 billion dollars a day
Although the United States and Israel have been able to control Iran's airspace for some time, they have not been able to stop Iran from coordinating access to the Strait of Hormuz, launching missiles and drones from mobile platforms, or exploiting allies in Lebanon and Iraq.
Since the military campaign lasted more than a month, the United States began to look for urgent solutions to save the demonstrations.The cost of operations is estimated at 2 billion dollars a day, the same amount that Washington claims to pay for the policy of retaliatory tariffs.All this without the death of 13 American soldiers.
In Israel's case, Tel Aviv is also looking to invade southern Lebanon and enter the areas beyond the Litani River to expand its border with the foothills to create a "new buffer zone" against Hezbollah and its special forces.
At the same time, both Washington and Tel Aviv go on to control the media to report daily that they are "winning the war".They try to satisfy the internal use of their social bases and create an image.This does not match the reality in the field of operations, where their attacks do not achieve concrete political results.President Trump's official message on April 1, 2026 is proof of this argument.
Defense doctrine
The new generation of the Revolutionary Guard is not only better educated, but also inherits the economic empire founded by its predecessors as veterans of the Iran-Iraq war.The new elites fought against the Islamic State, or Daesh, and gained experience in Syria, supporting Bashar al-Assad at the time.They were also involved in training militias in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.
Furthermore, their status as first-generation heirs makes them view this conflict as an existential war.Like the rest of the world's armed forces, they fight this battle through a war economy that powers their aircraft and missile companies and their energy networks.This would determine, for example, selective access to the Strait of Hormuz so that enemy navies could be forced to act under global economic pressure.
Unlike the Artesh (regular army), the Revolutionary Guard has a strong connection with Iranian society, providing preferential financial treatment to people with low incomes.The role in the "guards" can be seen as a cap to a successful career and as a valuable document.
The salaries provide a significant intrinsic incentive among the representatives of the popular peasant and urban class.They are the source of recruitment for the Basij, a network of conscripted volunteers that form the country's main asymmetric infantry.The paramilitary organization has nine million members and is led by a Revolutionary Guard general.
The Basiji army, unlike the regular army, has women's battalions in its formation; it is also worth noting that their role is more limited.Given the Eastern cultural traditions of family members and relationships, the total number of people benefiting in one way or another from the association of "parents" is large and usually increases in the context of war.
The work of the second generation of the Revolutionary Guards is not only military, but also diplomatic and operational.As the conflict is now in its sixth week, ChinaThis is done by shipping Iranian oil to countries like India and Pakistan.
Despite the temporary supply of 400 million barrels of crude oil from the International Energy Agency (IEA), it seems that global oil prices have not risen significantly because Iran continues to export oil and not so much because of President Trump's statement, their contradictions provide any economic reality.
The above incident is related to the most recent intelligence information published in Washington where it is predicted that "not only will there be no cracks in the Iranian regime, it will remain intact and possibly even stronger, believe that it faced Trump and survived."
At the same time, the economic and political power of the Revolutionary Guard expands into Iraq with companies such as General Mohandis of the Popular Mobilization Force.These followed the model of Khatam al-Anbiya, the most powerful state-owned company in the Iranian state, one of the strongest strongholds of the Revolutionary Guard.
Remnants of conflict
Without a doubt, Iran is setting the course for war by forcing the Washington-Tel Aviv axis to provide more resources for major operations in terms of fuel, precision weapons, maintenance equipment and deterrents.Even with troops on the ground to maintain a strong presence in the theater of operations.Although there is a consensus among experts that the number of Iranian missiles being launched towards Israel has decreased, it is also true that their precision has increased when hitting nerve centers in Tel Aviv, Haifa or Arad.is.something that has never been seen before in history.
By continuing with the same combative pace designed to exploit the economic and political weaknesses of its enemies, Iran hopes to leave its opponents without an ideal political solution.At the present time, no European country has taken the decision to enter into an illegal and illegitimate war, which is supported only by Israeli public opinion.Of course, with support up to 80%.
The United States' Gulf Arab allies are upset and worried that they feel like "second-rate allies" when Trump puts Israel's defense ahead of them.Abdulaziz al-Anjeri, the founder of the Reconnaissance Research think tank or laboratory of ideas, said this.
A war that does not strengthen American hegemony may hasten its downfall.Brute force on the Middle East chessboard without a coherent strategy is not only useless, but counterproductive.
Whatever happens, the region will not be the same after the war as profound changes will be triggered in the entire security architecture.From the allocation of strategic costs to a new arms race that is likely to occur with other actors in the region, such as Türkiye, Egypt or Pakistan.While investing in the first serious mediation effort, they are also watching with concern the unchecked implementation of Israel's fastest-growing policy on earth.throughout the Middle East.
